[SMM Analysis] Vietnam Issues Final Anti-Dumping Ruling on Chinese H-Beams! What Is the Impact Exactly!?

• Background

On November 25, 2024, Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade issued Announcement No. 3098/0C-BCT, making a final determination in the mid-term review of anti-dumping measures on H-beam steel products originating from China (Vietnamese: thep hinbch@ H). It decided to adjust the anti-dumping duties for Hebei Jinxi Section Steel Co., Ltd. and its affiliated traders Hebei Jinxi International Trade Co., Ltd., Hebei Jinxi Iron and Steel Group Co., Ltd., Tianjin New Asia Prosperity Proprietary Limited, and China Oriental Singapore Pet. Ltd. to 13.38%. The measures will take effect 15 days after the announcement date.

Table 1 - Vietnam's Anti-Dumping Final Determination Duty Rates on Chinese H-Beam Steel

14. H-beam steel exported to Vietnam accounts for only 4.97% of China's total export volume, with relatively small overall impact.

According to the customs codes involved in the anti-dumping case (7216.33.11, 7216.33.19, 7216.33.90, 7228.70.10, 7228.70.90), these products include hot-rolled, drawn, or extruded ordinary steel H-beam steel with a section height >800mm; hot-rolled, drawn, or extruded ordinary steel H-beam steel with a section height of 200mm < section height ≤ 800mm; hot-rolled, drawn, or extruded ordinary steel H-beam steel with a section height of 80mm ≤ section height ≤ 200mm; track plate steel; and other alloy steel angles, shapes, and sections.

Based on data from the General Administration of Customs,from the initiation of the anti-dumping investigation in 2017 to 2024, the export volume of the products involved from China experienced a trend of slow decline followed by a rebound. The export data of the products involved to Vietnam showed a similar trend, with export data strengthening again in 2021. For the first 11 months of this year, China exported 108,200 mt of H-beam steel to Vietnam, up 69.59% YoY (2023 export volume for the same period was 63,800 mt).It is certain that this year, China's export volume of the products involved to Vietnam will surpass last year's!

In terms of the proportion of the total export volume of the products involved to Vietnam relative to China's total export volume, the overall share fluctuated between 1% and 9%. From the original anti-dumping ruling in 2017 to 2021, the proportion of China's H-beam steel exports to Vietnam decreased from 8.72% to 1.69%, followed by a slow recovery.As of November 2024, China's total H-beam steel exports amounted to 2.1785 million mt, with exports to Vietnam accounting for only 4.97% of the total.

Table 2 - Proportion of the Products Involved Exported to Vietnam Relative to China's Total Export Volume, 2017-2024 November

Looking at the breakdown by product type, as of November 2024, among the H-beam steel exported from China to Vietnam, hot-rolled, drawn, or extruded ordinary steel H-beam steel with a section height of 80mm ≤ section height ≤ 200mm accounted for the largest share at 5.20%.

In summary, according to data from the General Administration of Customs, the total volume of H-beam steel exported from China to Vietnam in 2024 was only 108,200 mt, accounting for 4.97% of China's total H-beam steel exports. By product type, the largest share was hot-rolled, drawn, or extruded ordinary steel H-beam steel with a section height of 80mm ≤ section height ≤ 200mm, accounting for only 5.2%. Therefore, the continuation of the anti-dumping duties will not significantly impact the total export volume of H-beam steel from China. However, if the price of Chinese H-beam steel remains competitive compared to local resources in Vietnam, the export volume is expected to continue. On the other hand, the impact on H-beam steel exporters focusing on the Vietnamese market, such as Hebei Jinxi Section Steel and Rizhao Section Steel, will be significant.